Photo: Antarctica
Temporarily overshooting the climate targets of 1.5-2 degrees Celsius could increase the tipping risk of several Earth system elements by more than 70% even if in the longer term the global temperature stabilizes within the Paris range. Even if we would manage to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees after an overshoot of more than two degrees, this wouldn’t be enough as the risk of triggering one or more global tipping points would still be more than 50%. With more warming in the long-term, the risks increase dramatically. To effectively prevent all tipping risks, the global mean temperature increase would need to be limited to no more than one degree. We’re currently already at about 1.2 degrees and most likely on a path to temporarily overshoot the 1.5 degrees Celsius temperature threshold. Current mitigation policies are expected to lead to 2-3.6 degrees Celsius of warming by the end of this century. Very bad news.
www.commondreams.org/news/tipping-point