A 4°C rise in global temperatures would cut world GDP by around 40% by 2100–a stark increase from previous estimates of around 11%. Economists have traditionally looked at historical data comparing weather events to economic growth to cost climate damages. It doesn’t account for interruptions to the global supply chains currently buffering economic shock. In a hotter future, we can expect cascading supply chain disruptions triggered by extreme weather events worldwide. No country is immune.
www.unsw.edu.au/newsroom/news/2025/04/new-unsw-research-reveals-dramatically-higher-loss-of-gdp-under-4-degree-warming#:~:text=Elva%20Darnell,previous%20estimates%20of%20around%2011%25.