With the best-case lower carbon emissions scenario, the average worldwide flood hazard level could rise by 9% between 2020 and 2100. Higher emissions mean flooding could increase 49% by the end of 2000. Between 2020 and 2050, in a low emissions scenario flood risk is anticipated to grow 7% and to more than 15% in a high model.
Coastal flooding should increase by 99% by 2100, due to the lagged response of ocean sea level rise to existing warming. Flooding caused by rainfall is likely to increase by 6% by 2100 in a low emissions scenario, and increase to 44% in a high emissions model.
The largest flooding increases should be around coastlines and in tropical Africa and Asia, as well as significant changes to arid North Africa and most pronounced along the North Atlantic and Indian Ocean coasts, and southeastern Asia and the Pacific Islands.
www.bristol.ac.uk/cabot/news/2024/global-flooding-media-release.html